PREDIKSI KINERJA KEUANGAN PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK DENGAN REGRESI LINEAR DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Kata Kunci:
Prediksi kinerja keuangan, Regresi Linear, Exponential Smoothing, Rasio Keuangan, PT Astra International Tbk.Abstrak
Kinerja keuangan suatu perusahaan dapat diprediksi dengan menggunakan berbagai metode, salah satunya adalah regresi linear dan exponential smoothing. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi kinerja keuangan PT Astra International Tbk dengan menggunakan metode regresi linear dan exponential smoothing, serta menggabungkan kedua metode tersebut untuk memperoleh prediksi yang lebih akurat. Data keuangan PT Astra International Tbk dari tahun 2012-2021 digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Hasil prediksi dengan regresi linear menunjukkan bahwa rasio current ratio memiliki MAPE paling rendah, sedangkan exponential smoothing menunjukkan bahwa rasio debt to equity ratio memiliki MAPE paling rendah. Dalam penggabungan kedua metode, MAPE terendah diperoleh pada prediksi total asset turnover. Dalam pembahasan, faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kinerja keuangan PT Astra International Tbk dibahas untuk masing-masing rasio keuangan yang diprediksi. Kesimpulannya, penggabungan antara regresi linear dan exponential smoothing dapat meningkatkan akurasi prediksi kinerja keuangan, dan hasil prediksi dapat digunakan sebagai acuan dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi.
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